Nikki Haley's Slow Burn Was No Accident - Time | What Is COVID-19's Incubation Period? - Time | The Top 10 Global Risks for 2024 - Time | What Generative AI Reveals About the Human Mind

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� � � � � � You Might Like � � � � � � � � � Nikki Haley's Slow Burn Was No Accident - TIME (Full Access)    After 10 long months of campaigning, it was a 30-­second video that suggested Nikki Haley was finally getting somewhere. The December television ad, paid for by Donald Trump’s allies and aired in New Hampshire, accused the Republican presidential candidate of flip-flopping on the gas tax as South Carolina governor. But you could practically hear the champagne corks popping at Haley’s headquarters in Charleston. “Someone’s getting nervous,” she posted on social media. Haley’s emergence as perhaps the top threat to another Trump nomination isn’t what many Republicans expected when she launched her underdog campaign last February. But as the first votes in the 2024 GOP presidential primaries neared, she climbed to second place in many national and early state surveys, eclipsing Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and even narrowing the gap with Trump to single digits in the Granite State. Her slow-burn rise has been fueled by standout debate performances, which convinced many Republicans—including plenty of Wall Street donors—that Haley is the party’s best hope to beat both the GOP front runner and President Joe Biden. (One recent poll of a hypothetical matchup with Biden found her leading by 17 points.) Her momentum has opened a spigot of cash and spurred a series of key endorsements, from New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu to Americans for Prosperity Action, the Koch-backed grassroots powerhouse that has already spent upwards of $4 million on her behalf. More than any of Trump’s rivals, Haley has managed to make the case for her candidacy without turning off the pool of Republicans in the former President’s corner. “I believe Donald Trump was the right President at the right time; I agree with a lot of his policies,” Haley says at a recent Iowa town hall in a small ballroom at the Sioux City Convention Center, where a staffer has carted in extra chair after extra chair to accommodate a crowd that has gathered nearly six weeks ahead of the Jan. 15 Iowa caucuses. “The truth is, rightly or wrongly, chaos follows him,” she pivots. “We can’t have a country in disarray in a world on fire, and be dealing with four years of chaos. We won’t survive it.” Haley repeats lines like these in hay-filled barns and quaint eateries across Iowa and New Hampshire, targeting conservatives exhausted by Trump—a disjointed coalition that spans those who revile the former President and those convinced he can’t win. Her ability to draw these contrasts while eschewing direct confrontation have persuaded many non-Trump Republicans that she is their best bet to take him down. Continued here � � � � � � You Might Like � � � � � � � � � Don't like ads? Go ad-free with TradeBriefs Premium What Is COVID-19's Incubation Period? - TIME (Full Access)    You get the dreaded text: the friend you just met for lunch tested positive for COVID-19. Now you’re left to wonder if you, too, will get sick in the coming days. But when should you expect symptoms to start if you do get sick? The answer has changed from the earliest days of COVID-19, experts say. “In the beginning of the pandemic, we were really looking at seven to 10 days as the window of time where people had to quarantine or isolate after an exposure,” says Andrew Pekosz, a virologist at Johns Hopkins University. “That has shortened significantly now.” Continued here � � � � � � You Might Like � � � � � � � � � The Top 10 Global Risks for 2024 - TIME (Full Access)    In 2023, the big stories centered on two wars in Europe (Russia vs Ukraine) and the Middle East (Israel vs Hamas). Those conflicts will expand in 2024, but it’s a third “war”—the United States versus itself—that poses the greatest global risk. And, as always, there will be new stories that deserve more attention than they’re getting. While America’s military and economy remain exceptionally strong, the U.S. political system is more dysfunctional than any other advanced industrial democracy. In 2024, the problem will get much worse. The presidential election will deepen the country’s political division, testing American democracy to a degree the nation hasn’t experienced in 150 years and undermining U.S. credibility internationally. With the outcome of the vote close to a coin toss (at least for now), the only certainty is damage to America’s social fabric, political institutions, and international standing. In a world beset by crises, the prospect of a Trump victory will weaken America’s position on the global stage as Republican lawmakers take up his foreign policy positions and U.S. allies and adversaries hedge against his likely policies. The fighting in Gaza will expand in 2024, with several pathways for escalation into a broader regional war. Some could draw the U.S. and Iran more directly into the fighting. The conflict will pose risks to the global economy, widen geopolitical and political divisions, and stoke global extremism. The straightest path to escalation would be a decision by either Israel or Hezbollah to attack the other. Top Israeli leaders have pledged to “remove” the threat from Hezbollah. If Israel were to attack preemptively, the U.S. military would provide support, and Iran would assist Hezbollah, its most important regional proxy. Houthi militants are also pursuing an escalatory path, and Shia militias operating in Iraq and Syria have increased attacks on U.S. bases with Tehran’s blessing. No country involved in the Gaza conflict wants a regional conflict to erupt. But the powder is dry, and the number of players carrying matches makes the risk of escalation high. Continued here � � � � � � You Might Like � � � � � � � � � What Generative AI Reveals About the Human Mind - TIME (Full Access)    Generative AI—think Dall.E, ChatGPT-4, and many more—is all the rage. It’s remarkable successes, and occasional catastrophic failures, have kick-started important debates about both the scope and dangers of advanced forms of artificial intelligence. But what, if anything, does this work reveal about natural intelligences such as our own? I’m a philosopher and cognitive scientist who has spent their entire career trying to understand how the human mind works. Drawing on research spanning psychology, neuroscience, and artificial intelligence, my search has drawn me towards a picture of how natural minds work that is both interestingly similar to, yet also deeply different from, the core operating principles of the generative AIs. Examining this contrast may help us better understand them both. The AIs learn a generative model (hence their name) that enables them to predict patterns in various kinds of data or signal. What generative there means is that they learn enough about the deep regularities in some data-set to enable them to create plausible new versions of that kind of data for themselves. In the case of ChatGPT the data is text. Knowing about all the many faint and strong patterns in a huge library of texts allows ChatGPT, when prompted, to produce plausible versions of that kind of data in interesting ways, when sculpted by user prompts—for example, a user might request a story about a black cat written in the style of Ernest Hemingway. But there are also AIs specializing in other kinds of data, such as images, enabling them to create new paintings in the style of, say, Picasso. Continued here

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