Tuesday, October 24, 2023

Welcome to the age of the hermit consumer | Israel Is Stretched Thin and Hezbollah Knows It | How Isaac Newton Discovered the Binomial Power Series | Quanta Magazine | Joshua and Vernon on Seventeen’s Super Silly, Sincere Career

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Welcome to the age of the hermit consumer - The Economist   

In some ways the covid-19 pandemic was a blip. After soaring in 2020, unemployment across the rich world quickly dropped to pre-pandemic lows. Rich countries reattained their pre-covid gdp levels in short order. And yet, more than two years after lockdowns were lifted, at least one change appears to be enduring: consumer habits across the rich world have shifted decisively, and perhaps permanently. Welcome to the age of the hermit.

In the years before covid, the share of consumer spending devoted to services rose steadily upwards. As societies got richer, they demanded more in the way of luxury experiences, health care and financial planning. Then, in 2020, spending on services, from hotel stays to hair cuts, collapsed owing to lockdowns. With people spending more time at home, demand for goods jumped, with a rush for computer equipment and exercise bikes.

Three years on the share of spending devoted to services remains below its pre-covid level (see chart 1). Relative to its pre-covid trend, the decline is even sharper. Rich-world consumers are spending on the order of $600bn a year less on services than you might have expected in 2019. In particular, people are less interested in spending on leisure activities that generally take place outside the home, including hospitality and recreation. The money saved is being redirected to goods, ranging from durables such as chairs and fridges, to things like clothes, food and wine.

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How Isaac Newton Discovered the Binomial Power Series | Quanta Magazine - Quanta Magazine   

Isaac Newton was not known for his generosity of spirit, and his disdain for his rivals was legendary. But in one letter to his competitor Gottfried Leibniz, now known as the Epistola Posterior, Newton comes off as nostalgic and almost friendly. In it, he tells a story from his student days, when he was just beginning to learn mathematics. He recounts how he made a major discovery equating areas under curves with infinite sums by a process of guessing and checking. His reasoning in the letter is so charming and accessible, it reminds me of the pattern-guessing games little kids like to play.

It all began when young Newton read John Wallis' Arithmetica Infinitorum, a seminal work of 17th-century math. Wallis included a novel and inductive method of determining the value of pi, and Newton wanted to devise something similar. He started with the problem of finding the area of a "circular segment" of adjustable width $latex x$. This is the region under the unit circle, defined by $latex y=\sqrt{1-x^2}$, that lies above the portion of the horizontal axis from 0 to $latex x$. Here $latex x$ could be any number from 0 to 1, and 1 is the radius of the circle. The area of a unit circle is pi, as Newton well knew, so when $latex x=1$, the area under the curve is a quarter of the unit circle, $latex\frac{Ï€}{4}$. But for other values of $latex x$, nothing was known.

If Newton could find a way to determine the area under the curve for every possible value of $latex x$, it might give him an unprecedented means of approximating pi. That was originally his grand plan. But along the way he found something even better: a method for replacing complicated curves with infinite sums of simpler building blocks made of powers of $latex x$.

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