Wednesday, September 6, 2023

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Britain's statisticians fix a blunder and find a bigger economy   

REVISIONS TO ECONOMIC data are common. It’s rare that tweaks to already published figures make big news. But then it’s also rare for statisticians at the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the body that produces Britain’s official data, to make dramatic adjustments. Last week, in effect, they found almost two percentage points’ worth of GDP hidden behind a sofa.

In an update on September 1st, the ONS rewrote Britain’s recent economic history. Previously official data had shown the economy, at the end of 2021, to be still 1.2% below its pre-pandemic size. Now it reports that national output at the time was in fact 0.6% higher. As the government has been quick to point out, the revisions make a notable impact on Britain’s performance relative to its peers. For much of the past two years Britain had appeared to be a global laggard, with the weakest growth of any of the G7 group of leading rich economies. After the revisions the performance, if hardly stellar, looks more respectable. Britain has been outgrowing Germany, for example, and has achieved a pace comparable to that of France (see chart).

GDP numbers are always subject to revision as more information becomes available and they should, in theory at least, grow more accurate as time moves on. The latest updates mark a large absolute adjustment, but are not unusual in proportion to the underlying changes in GDP to which they relate. The magnitude of the swings in national output in 2020 and 2021 was without recent precedent. For that reason, proportionally normal revisions add up to big changes in the headline figures. Even without the wild gyrations in GDP, the pandemic was a tricky time for compiling data. For example, with many workers trapped at home, firms did not make it a priority to fill in forms for official statisticians.

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Want to accelerate software development at your company? See how we can help.

NUS - Chief Strategy Officer Programme













Want to accelerate software development at your company? See how we can help.

NUS - Chief Strategy Officer Programme


Want to accelerate software development at your company? See how we can help.

NUS - Chief Strategy Officer Programme


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