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TradeBriefs Editorial

From the Editor's Desk

The biases that make us underrate underdogs

Myths about prodigious sporting talents might mean that we overlook less obvious athletes. If we could only avoid our biases, we might be able to spot the next big star.

When Lamont Marcell Jacobs claimed gold in the Men's 100m on 1 August he caught many by surprise. The Italian was an outsider, an underdog in the eyes of bookmakers, pundits and fans.

Jacobs held off runners from nations with a much greater history of producing sprinters. The 26-year-old also did it in his second-choice sport. While he competed as a sprinter as a teenager, he discovered long-jump in his late teens and only switched to the 100m as an adult in 2018. He is also not a sprinter with a particular record for fast times - he recorded his first sub-10-second race only earlier this year.

His story sounds remarkable; an athlete who found their niche later in their career from a country with not much of a pedigree of sprinting success, who blew the competition away. But Jacobs's achievement shows some of the things that we regularly get wrong about sporting talent. There are reasons that we overrate favourites and underrate underdogs. If we knew how to look, could we find more like Jacobs out there?

Continued here


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