Friday, November 10, 2023

Ukraine inches closer to joining the EU | The housing market is starting to crack—Sellers are cutting prices at record levels as 'You can no longer price based off of where sales were' | Single-family rentals are a ‘superstar’ investment. Here are the top 10 markets to buy in | The deadly missile race in the Middle East

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Ukraine inches closer to joining the EU - The Economist   

GOOD NEWS has been thin on the ground for Ukraine of late. Its counter-offensive to kick out Russian troops has stalled, the fighting in Israel and Gaza has stolen some of the limelight it needs to keep money and arms flowing from allies, and the prospect of Trumpism rebooted in America feels ever more real. So a thumbs up from the EU that Ukraine is on track in its journey towards joining the club will be a welcome fillip in Kyiv—even though it will be years before it actually becomes a member.

On November 8th the European Commission in Brussels unveiled its annual assessment of how countries who aspire to become EU members are getting on with the reforms needed to do so. Eight are actively vying to join as well as Ukraine, including Georgia, Moldova and six countries in the western Balkans that have sought to join the EU for decades. (Turkey is nominally still a candidate country, but its accession talks have been placed on hold.) Ukraine is by far the biggest of the active applicants.

The upshot of the report is that Ukraine and Moldova should be given the green light to start formal negotiations to join by the end of the year—once the leaders of the EU’s members approve the commission’s recommendation. This would be an upgrade to their previous status as mere “candidate countries”, granted in June 2022. The report is not unambiguously positive: Ukraine is expected to deliver further reforms around the treatment of minorities, “de-oligarchisation” and combating corruption as a condition to keep making progress in talks.

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The housing market is starting to crack—Sellers are cutting prices at record levels as 'You can no longer price based off of where sales were' - Fortune   

There’s something frozen about this housing market. “Zoom towns” like Boise and Austin aside, home prices nationwide have just refused to drop. Existing-home prices are on their seventh consecutive month of growth, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, a leading measure of home values for over 30 years. Average U.S. existing home prices are up by nearly 6% year-to-date and 2.6% year-over-year, which is “well above the median full calendar year increase” in more than three decades of data, according to Case-Shiller. But now we know that a crack appeared in October—and it was among sellers.

The challenges of soaring mortgage rates and home prices aren’t just impacting buyers—they’re plaguing sellers, too. Even with limited existing home inventory, a record number of them dropped the prices on their listings in October, according to a new Redfin report.

Nearly 7% of for-sale homes in the U.S. posted a price drop during the four weeks ending Oct. 29, which is the highest portion since Redfin started tracking this data in 2012 and far surpasses the 3.6% of homes that lower their price in an average month. This 11-year record comes as mortgage rates have steadied between 7.5% and 8% this past month, the highest they’ve been in two decades. (It’s important to note, however, that even with last month’s drops, home prices are still up 3% year-over-year, according to Redfin.)

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The deadly missile race in the Middle East - The Economist   

THE BALLISTIC missiles that arced from Yemen to Israel on October 31st set several records. They probably travelled farther than any other ballistic missile fired as an act of aggression, having crossed at least 1,600km. They were intercepted by Israel’s Arrow missile-defence system above the Negev desert. It was the first time that Arrow, deployed for 23 years, had taken out a surface-to-surface missile. It was also the first ever combat interception in space, according to two Israeli officials. The incident is a small illustration of how the proliferation of missiles with growing range and precision is changing the military landscape of the Middle East.

Missiles have been part of war in the region for over 50 years. The Soviet Scud, a workhorse of the rocket world, was first fired in the final stages of the Yom Kippur war of 1973 against Israel. Huge numbers of Scuds were fired by Iran and Iraq in the so-called war of the cities in the 1980s. By one estimate, 90% of the 5,000 missiles let loose in combat between 1945 and 2017 were fired in the Middle East. Now the threat is metastasising in two ways. More people have access to more missiles. And the missiles themselves are becoming qualitatively better.

Start with the proliferation. In the 1950s Egypt began building ballistic missiles with the help of Nazi scientists. Israel followed, with French help. From the 1960s to the 1980s Soviet missiles flooded into Egypt, Iraq, Libya, Syria and other states. China supplied Saudi Arabia and Turkey. North Korea helped Iran, Yemen and the United Arab Emirates. Later, America, Britain and France sent advanced missiles of their own. The result is that 11 countries in the region now have ballistic missiles (those which fly in a parabolic arc) or cruise missiles (which use plane-like engines to fly on flatter trajectories) with ranges of more than 250km, estimates Hassan Elbahtimy of King’s College London.

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